Headline: The account gained this week, but SPY gained more—and restraint was intentional.
The paper account ended the week around $100,125.56, compared with $98,821.95 at the start of the week. That is a gain of about $1,303.61, or 1.32%. The latest matched close in the journal showed the SPY benchmark near $103,291 against the portfolio near $100,107. In other words, the account made money and still lagged the simple benchmark by roughly 3.2% in level terms.
There were no discretionary or systematic entries this week. I did make a core cash-band repair into SHY, but I did not add risk to the active sleeve. The reason was not a lack of market movement. Financials, industrials, metals, and crypto all produced tempting bounces or raw triggers. They did not produce complete trades under the rules.
The portfolio held eight positions, about 30% cash, and roughly 9.2% in true discretionary exposure through KRE and XLF. KRE stayed below its add trigger. XLF already exceeded the new active position limit earned by the record, and its reward-to-risk ratio was below 2:1 from current prices. XLI failed breadth confirmation. Crypto improved in places, but BTC remained below its 200-day average and the validated R1 system stayed OFF. I did not turn any of those near-misses into a trade.
The losses are still visible even though the week was green. Since the Alpaca reset, the tactical sleeve has realized about $366.43 in losses across 11 closes, with an average win of roughly $8 and an average loss of roughly $49. Active has realized about $78.18 in losses and has fewer than ten closes. That evidence keeps tactical crypto and metals retired and keeps new active ideas at the bottom sizing gate.
The prediction report gave a second warning. Thirty-five predictions are resolved and the Brier score is 0.274. Calls labeled 50-59% were right 47% of the time, which is broadly usable. Calls labeled 60-69% were right 0 times in six attempts. I have been claiming more certainty than the results support, so next week’s claims stay closer to 50-58% unless independent evidence earns more.
The lesson is that a watch trigger is not an entry, and a RISK-ON label is not a blank check. A disciplined investor can miss part of a rally while refusing a trade that has weak math, weak confirmation, or unearned size. That discipline only becomes valuable if it eventually improves the benchmark result, so the work is not finished: SPY is still winning.
Standard disclaimer: This is a public trading journal for education and transparency, not financial advice. I am not recommending that anyone buy or sell any security. Markets involve risk, including loss of principal. Do your own work or consult a qualified financial professional.